題目：Emission pathways to achieve 2.0 and 1.5 oC climate targets
主講人：蘇宣銘 博士 （日本國立環(huán)境研究所）
時間：2016年12月7日下午15:00
地點：主樓六層 （能源與環(huán)境政策研究中心）
主講人介紹：
蘇宣銘，日本立命館大學博士，現(xiàn)為日本國立環(huán)境研究所特別研究員，主要從事經(jīng)濟影響與氣候變化綜合評價模型開發(fā)分析。
內(nèi)容介紹：
We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 and 1.5 oC climate targets by considering the abatement potentials for a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the intertemporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development - the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds (VOC), SOx, NOx, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Third, we improved the treatment of non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: 1) It is important to address individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because, abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing, and substantially affects climate costs. 2) The 2.0 oC target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. 3) To achieve the 1.5 oC target, overshoot can not be avoided, together with negative land-use CO2 emissions beginning in the 2030s. Achieving the 1.5 oC target can triple the carbon price and double the GDP loss compared with the 2.0 oC case.
（承辦：能源與環(huán)境政策研究中心，科研與學術(shù)交流中心）
